From Fragile to Manageable – West Ham’s Six Game Survival Path

The Under the Hammers Supercomputer projects the future.

West Ham’s survival maths has tightened again, but crucially, it’s tightened in our favour. The Under The Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block, correctly called the Villa defeat and the Wolves win, and after that, and results elsewhere, the run-in now looks less like chaos and more like a plan. It’s in our own hands. We were right again, Villa away went as expected, Wolves at home had to be won, and was. Now at West Ham we have six games to save ourselves. And the pathway to survival is clearer than it’s been all season.

With six games now remaining, Deep Block has been rebooted once more. West Ham are still not safe, still not comfortable, but the survival picture is shifting from fragile to manageable. Since the last computer run, two fixtures have moved from projection into reality. West Ham lost 2–0 at Aston Villa and then thrashed Wolves 4–0 at the London Stadium. Both outcomes were in line with what the model expected, and that matters, because the difference between surviving and going down is often less about one surprising result, and more about reliably banking the points you must bank.

Villa Park was always low-probability for points, and so it proved. The 2–0 defeat was a blow at the time, but not a surprise, and not a result that rewrites the model. This was never the fixture West Ham’s season hinged on. You don’t build a survival plan around winning at a top-four side. You build it around what comes next.

That’s why Wolves mattered. And West Ham didn’t just win, we flattened them (at least in the second half we did!). In the original equation, Wolves at home sat in the “decisive” category, exactly the kind of game we couldn’t let slip. Those three points reduces uncertainty and reduces the number of “must-do” outcomes ahead.

The original model ran with twelve games to go. It predicted a draw at home to Bournemouth which was correct, a win at home to Wolves also correct, defeats at Liverpool, Manchester City and Villa, two correct and an unexpected free hit produced a point against City, and a draw at Fulham which turned out to be a win. We predicted that it was one of the away games where we could hope to turn a draw into a win which we duly did. So now we sit on 32 points, three points ahead of the original predictions, and two points above the bottom three with the run-in underway. We are last to play this weekend. Will we still be out of the bottom three when our game comes round on Monday?

Deep Block’s broad conclusion remains consistent with the previous run. The likely safety line sits around 38–40, which means West Ham are no longer chasing something outrageous. We are chasing a target that can be met with competent, repeatable outcomes rather than miracles. Weighting the final run-in correctly, home games like Everton and Leeds remain the true win fixtures, while Palace and Brentford away still profile as the likeliest draw opportunities, and perhaps even Newcastle too with their recent poor run. Newcastle’s recent form in the past 10 or 12 matches doesn’t match Leeds, Forest or West Ham. Statistical opportunities exist for wins in those three away games too. Deep Block’s value isn’t “perfect prediction”. It’s correctly identifying which matches are the ones that define our season, which are opportunities, and which are free hits.

1. Crystal Palace (A): Mon 20 April: Projection: Draw
Why: One of the away fixtures that still profiles as a realistic one point but with a potential to replicate what happened at Fulham. Palace have been on a run of winning every other game and drawing or losing the one in between. They won their last game, so a draw or defeat is likely if the pattern continues. They are stronger away from home, fifth in the away games league table, but just four home wins in sixteen games leaves them fifteenth in the home games table. Seven of their home games have ended in draws.

2. Everton (H): Sat 25 April: Projection: Win
Why: Previously identified as a decisive home match in the survival pathway. This will not be easy given Everton’s form with 10 points from their last six games. However, with just three home games to go, and one of those against the league leaders this game somehow has added significance for us, although Everton are one of several teams jostling for European qualification. They are strong away from home (fourth in the away games table) so we’ll have to be at our best as this is a game where we could slip up if we are not.

3. Brentford (A): Sat 2 May: Projection: Draw
Why: Still one of the likeliest away draw opportunities in the model’s framing. Despite their lofty seventh place in the league they have drawn their last four games. A realistic one point is achievable with a potential to snatch three, similar to the game at Crystal Palace. But Brentford have only lost three of their sixteen home games so no guarantees of any points here although the draw in the recent cup game gives us hope of another one.  

4. Arsenal (H): Sun 10 May: Projection: Defeat
Why: A higher-difficulty fixture where the model doesn’t need points. The key is not letting it derail the plan. Despite their apparent faltering form they have still collected 13 points from their last six games. But if we have faltered ourselves in the previous 3 games then we might need something from this which will be tough.

5. Newcastle United (A): Sun 17 May: Projection: Draw
Why: Our final away game and despite their current form with four defeats in their last six games, it could still be another tough one. A point is possible and an unlikely win would ease the tension, especially if the previous results have not gone to plan.

6. Leeds United (H): Sun 24 May: Projection: Win
Why: Alongside Everton at home, Leeds was already identified as one of the defining fixtures. Who knows whether they will be safe at this point and ‘on the beach’ or still fighting for survival? It’s too far ahead but the belief is that home advantage will drive us over the line. Leeds are eighteenth in the away table so relegation form on their travels but this week’s win at Old Trafford has eased the pressure on them and the win in the cup here recently shows an upturn in away form.

Below is a projection consistent with the model’s earlier weighting that there are decisive home fixtures, that away draws provide the most plausible value and the best chance of exceeding expectation, and acceptance that a couple of games are likely free hits:

If all goes to plan the projected finish is 41 points. Two wins, three draws and one defeat: nine points from the final six games. The last six games have yielded eight points. Matching these lands us directly in the previously stated “likely safety” band, and it does it without demanding anything exotic. But it could all go wrong still. The predicted wins might not happen, and the draws could be defeats. But one away win in the last three away games could compensate for that. But a predicted win that becomes a defeat reduces the projection to 38. Will that be enough?  

When we lost at home to Forest (perhaps controversially?) it didn’t look as though there was any way back and relegation seemed inevitable. The massive improvement since then has seen us climb out of the bottom three, keeping pace with Forest, and thanks to Tottenham’s decline moving two points ahead of our North London neighbours. But there are no easy games. We need our recent form to continue.

So let’s recap. The original model which ran with 12 games to go predicted a finishing position of 18th place and likely relegation. The likely safety line at that point was predicted to be 38-42 points and that still stands. Of course, it is not just our own results that will decide our fate but also those achieved by Leeds, Forest and Tottenham.

How far do you like to go back to consider current form? Deep Block has some alternatives for you. Points gained in:

Last 4 games: West Ham 7, Leeds 6, Forest 6, Tottenham 1

Last 6 games: West Ham 8, Leeds 6, Forest 6, Tottenham 1

Last 8 games: West Ham 12, Leeds 10, Forest 7, Tottenham 1

Last 10 games: West Ham 15, Leeds 11, Forest 11, Tottenham 3

Last 12 games: West Ham 18, Leeds 14, Forest 15, Tottenham 3

However far you go back it looks good. BUT! We are not safe or comfortable. Will Tottenham will end their disastrous run of form? We hope not, but can they really continue to be so bad? Will there be a new manager bounce? Have Leeds turned the corner with their win at Manchester United? Are they already safe with a six point cushion? And what about Forest? Their fixtures aren’t straightforward but surely they will pull a further three points clear this weekend at home to Burnley?

The computer projections are based on current form, historical data, fixture difficulty and multiple other factors. But football is an unpredictable game. End of season games are perhaps even more unpredictable. Like Forrest Gump’s box of chocolates analogy, you never know what you are going to get. Football forecasting is not a perfect science. And this is nothing too serious. It‘s a bit of fun really. Anything can still happen. COYI!

West Ham Bulletin: Friday I’m In Love But I Still Don’t Like Mondays

A near perfect weekend of football sees West Ham escape the bottom three at the expense of Tottenham. The tussle to avoid the last relegation place is now looking like a three-horse race. Can West Ham carry recent good form into the remaining games?

The dream of a near perfect weekend of Premier League relegation football was rudely disrupted by Leeds victory at Old Trafford last night. The result provides the Yorkshire club with sufficient headroom to suggest the struggle to avoid 18th place is now a three-horse race between Nottingham Forest, West Ham and Tottenham.

The practice of stringing out the weekend’s fixtures over four days is a feature of modern football that I’ve never come to terms with. I can accept the rationale for multiple weekend kick-off times, but Friday and Monday games for your team leaves the weekend with an empty feeling. As the number of clubs participating in Europe competition has increased, these have become the Cinderella slots whose only purpose is to fulfil broadcast quotas for the less glamorous participants.  

In the past, it was only clubs such as Southend and Colchester who would dream of playing on Friday nights. Hoping to attract casual fans who would rather spend Saturday afternoons watching one of the bigger clubs in the capital. And while Monday once held a certain prestige in the earlier days of limited live televised games, that too has become more of a contractual obligation.

As a vaguely interesting aside, if your memories go back as far as the 1960s you might remember that West Ham would regularly schedule their early season midweek games on a Monday night (kick off 7:30). This would occasionally allow a day or two at the very top of the table courtesy of having played an extra game.

Anyway, even the negatives of the Friday night anomaly can be forgiven and forgotten when your team run out as 4-0 victors. It was not an expected outcome from the evidence of the opening exchanges where the visitors started much sharper and stronger – without necessarily creating too many clear-cut chances. The complexion of the game changed, though, with a perfectly timed Hammers opener on the cusp of half-time. It followed the game’s first corner which although initially cleared was played back in for Dinos Mavropanos to powerfully head home. The neck of the gods had done it again.

The second half performance evoked flashbacks to the swagger of the brief Moyes/ Lingard purple patch of 2021. A team playing on its toes, attacking with pace and imposing themselves on the game. It may have been a long time coming, but Nuno has finally hit upon a way of playing that magnifies the player’s strengths and conceals their shortcomings.

From the tireless running of Taty and Pablo, the liveliness of Bowen and Summerville and the strength and solidity of Disasi and Mavropanos. Where Soucek has been deployed in a simpler role where his slow tempo is not exposed; with Fernandes the reliable anchor and conductor; and Mads encouraged to use his superior distribution skills but without taking unnecessary risks. There are still weaknesses though. The formation allows the midfield to be overrun by greater numbers on occasion, the front players cannot keep up the pressing for a full 90 minutes, and we are one significant injury away from all the improvements falling to pieces. Survival will require both committed performances and a generous slice of good fortune.

Perhaps the most important factor is to ensure Max Kilman never gets anywhere near the pitch. No surprise that he didn’t make the bench on Friday. What to do with him though? Maybe ending up being passed around on loan like a recycled raffle prize for the remainder of his seven-year contract?

The rare convincing victory certainly gave a boost to the West Ham media team who, if my social media algorithm is anything to go by, have been posting daily celebratory posts as if we’d won the Champions League. A consequence of having so little to cheer for so long. Even the ‘Behind The Scenes’ crew managed to see action this weekend.

A further upshot of the weekend results is a first sighting of the old cliché that survival is in our own hands. This a consequence of Tottenham’s defeat at Sunderland leaving them two points adrift of the Hammers and without a league win in 2026. Yet when you are mired in a relegation battle having averaged only a point per game across the season, the idea of ‘being in your own hands’ is somewhat illusory. However, the simple fact is that winning more points in the remaining games than Spurs will keep us up and potentially doom them to the Championship – which would be a shame😉

Forecasting games is notoriously difficult at the tail end of the season. I watched the first hour of Crystal Palace versus Newcastle on Sunday and what a tepid end of season affair that was. Neither would provide an insurmountable obstacle if they offered the same lethargic approach against us. With Glasner leaving Palace and Howe surely on his last life on Tyneside how much will they be up for the games?

On the other hand, both Everton and Brentford are in with a shout of European qualification and unfortunately have more to play for than just mid-table pride. Then there’s Arsenal. Looking odds on for the title a few weeks back they are having a serious wobble. What situation will they be in by the time they face West Ham on May 10, a few days after a probable Champions League semi-final second leg clash?

Ideally, it would be great to go into the final day with nothing at stake. Last day survival bids are not good for either health or sanity. At least, it is highly likely that Leeds will have reached safety well before then.

What might happen over the coming week is pure speculation and with so many variables that it can only lead to madness. As my Scottish grandfather might have said: “If ifs and ands were pots and pans, there’d be no work for tinkers’ hands.” COYI!

West Ham Bulletin: Marathon Cup Exit, Keystone Kilman and the Pablo Paradox

West Ham’s hopes of taking the long and winding extra time needed road to Wembley Stadium came to a disappointing end in Sunday’s penalty shootout showdown.

Put the claret ribbon back in the loft. Cancel the orders for face paint and the inflatable Hammer. Stop worrying about the best route to travel to Wembley Stadium. There’ll no FA Cup glory for West Ham this season. The best chance in years of a showpiece semi – and/ or final – dashed in the penalty shootout lottery at the end of Sunday’s marathon encounter with Leeds United.

So, our name wasn’t on the cup this year despite all the minutes played. As in the previous rounds, it was a game of two halves with some extra bits tacked on the end. Now we can concentrate fully on the league. There were positives to take from the match, and we must dust ourselves down ready for another big game on Friday night. We will take each cliche as it comes.

News stories headlined ‘How to watch West Ham versus Leeds United’ never fail to amuse.  Surely, it’s obvious. Sit yourself down, face towards the pitch or TV screen with your favourite cold beverage or snack of choice to hand. Except that when it comes to watching West Ham, sometimes it’s preferable to look away to avoid undue disappointment.

The first half on Sunday was one of those times. Nuno had opted for a spot of squad rotation – either enforced or discretionary depending on your point of view – and resorted to the 4-2-3-1 formation which has rarely borne fruit in previous outings. Even more worrying was the appearance on the team sheet of £40 million, £100 k per week, seven-year contract, Lopetegui marque signing, Max Kilman. If you had feared the worst, then you weren’t to be disappointed.

In the opening 45 minutes, the Hammers were dreadful, dismayed and disjointed. And although Leeds were energetic and competent rather than outstanding, they were well worth their one goal lead at the break. Freddie Potts and Soungoutou Magassa struggled against the opposition’s constant harrying and were forced into a succession of misplaced passes. Mateus Fernandes is never as influential when deployed in an advanced role. The experiment of Jarrod Bowen on the left was interesting but ultimately ineffective. And Taty was once again isolated up front.

At least Adama looked like he meant business. A series of powerful, snaking runs from the right threatened to cause panic in the Leeds defence. That they eventually came to nothing was not down to his own rush of blood on this occasion. It was regrettable that his team-mates did not think to bring him into the game more as an outlet.

The half time changes finally brought us back to the team Nuno should have started with. Tomas Soucek and Pablo Felipe on for Potts and Magassa. Bowen and Adama swapping wings and Fernandes dropping deeper to direct operations. It created a better balance and there was an obvious uptick in performance.

The Pablo Paradox is difficult to explain. Here is a player who makes minimal impact on the game with the ball. But his very presence, chasing and pressing somehow provides a setup in which others can flourish. The Hammers were a different team after the break.

As the game progressed, the only question was whether West Ham would find the breakthrough they needed to draw level. Kilman though had other ideas. Having got away with one reckless last ditch penalty box tackle in the first half, he opted for a 73rd minute reprise. It was so clearcut that it was a surprise that referee Pawson required the intervention of VAR before awarding it.

The second Leeds goal knocked the stuffing out of the Hammers. With no meaningful goal attempts fir the remainder of normal time, and large swathes of the crowd heading for a quick getaway, it looked like game over. Then all hell broke loose. Bowen’s shot thumped against the post but (for once) bounced kindly for Fernandes to reduce the deficit. Too little too late, perhaps? Only for Axel Disasi to prompt the wildest scenes at the London Stadium by steering home Adama’s cross.

The extra time momentum was with the home side and for a few moments we believed the turnaround was complete as Taty capitalised on a goalkeeping error to flick home. Cue ecstatic celebrations until VAR discovered an offside shoulder infringement in the build-up.

To think that if this had been a VAR free 4th round tie, there may have been no penalty and no disallowed goal. But then referees seemingly delegate more and more of their decisions to VAR whenever it is available.

West Ham finished the game in the ascendency. There were near misses but no more goals. As the minutes ticked by, thoughts strayed to who will actually take our penalties. Only Bowen and Soucek remained from the group who had dispatched the perfect set in the previous round. Was it wise to replace Taty at that stage of the game? To make matters more interesting, rookie keeper Finlay Herrick was called upon to replace the injured Alphonse Areola. No pressure on your senior debut for a player who doesn’t yet have a Wikipedia page. If his ability matches his swagger he will become an excellent keeper.

The shootout began promisingly for the Hammers when Herrick saved Piroe’s opening effort. A score from the reliable Bowen would surely provide us with a psychological advantage. But his poor spot kick was saved also. The next four were all scored.  

As Pablo stepped up for West Ham’s fourth, I’m certain we were all convinced he wouldn’t score. In a Family Fortune’s style survey, 100% would have given the same answer. Even Pablo’s body language agreed. At least he was brave enough to give it a go.

What effect being knocked out the cup – and taking 120 minutes plus to do so – will have on the team is a matter of speculation. Will the team spirit which inspired the astonishing late revival survive intact. Or will those extra minutes take their toll. The hope is that several important players will be fit and ready to return for the Friday night encounter with Wolves. Identified previously as the most winnable of the remaining games it’s now starting to look like a more formidable obstacle against a side who haven’t played for a month. But it is an obstacle which must be overcome if survival is to be a realistic outcome. COYI!

FA Cup Quarter Final, West Ham v Leeds. One step from Wembley

West Ham stand one victory from Wembley. Who would have believed that in this miserable season? The FA Cup has always held a special place in the history of this Club, with some of my best memories in the last 68 years tied to the FA Cup runs of 1964, 1975, 1980 and 2006. We won three of them and should have won the fourth too. Sunday afternoon’s quarter‑final presents a powerful opportunity to progress in the competition.

Progressing even further will be difficult to say the least with Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea all involved in quarter final matches and three of those are likely to be in the draw alongside the winner of today’s game when it comes to the semi-final. Nevertheless, it provides a trip to Wembley and a chance to build on the confidence gained in the last few weeks from a run that has picked up more points than those of our fellow relegation candidates.

I’m aware of those fans on social media who would be happy to forget the FA Cup this season and concentrate on the fight to remain in the Premier League, but those challenges will return soon enough. For now, our focus should be singular. Ninety minutes, and if required thirty more and perhaps penalties, separate us from a place in the FA Cup semi‑finals. The prize is clear and the stage is set at the London Stadium on Sunday.

This is our first FA Cup quarter‑final appearance in ten years, earned through a determination to progress in the competition, and to continue recent form in the Premier League, (although admittedly the performance at Aston Villa was poor). There are no replays at this stage of the competition. This is knockout football in its purest form. When the final whistle sounds, one club will continue its journey toward the semi-final at Wembley Stadium. Our aim should be simple and that is to ensure that Club is West Ham United. The penalties in the last round showed how much we wanted it.

Our progress to this stage has been built on resilience to continue in the competition. Victories over Queens Park Rangers and Burton Albion which both needed extra time were followed by a dramatic fifth‑round tie against Brentford, settled by penalties after a fiercely contested 120 minutes. It was a performance that captured the spirit of the squad, disciplined, committed, and united under pressure. We’ve had to fight for every inch in this FA Cup run.

The London Stadium has been an important source of strength in the second half of this season. We arrive in today’s tie having only lost one game at home in all competitions in 2026, and that was a game that we should never have lost against fellow relegation strugglers Nottingham Forest.

Leeds United arrive in East London seeking to extend their own FA Cup run, having reached the quarter‑final stage for the first time in more than twenty years. They are a committed, energetic side capable of pressing aggressively and challenging opponents physically. They will come here believing they can progress. But their record away from home is poor. They have only won one game in the Premier League away from Elland Road all season (that was at Wolves back in August), so their record on the road is not good.

The draw has been relatively kind to us this season, Win this, and although the odds are likely to be stacked against us in the semi-final, who knows? Come on you irons!

Indiana Santo and The Villa of Doom: Roof Collapses on West Ham Escape Plan

Defeat might have been expected in Sunday’s Villa Park encounter but it was the disappointing nature of the performance which raises serious questions about the Hammer’s survival credentials.

A pivotal moment in the genre of action-adventure movies – the Indiana Jones franchise popular in the 1980s and 90s, for example – is when the protagonists must navigate a series of perilous traps, rotating blades, and concealed pressure plates to avoid an ancient booby trap that would seal an inevitable fate.

The West Ham escape plan seems very much like that. Either by accident or design, Nuno had hit upon a balance of personnel, formation and style of play which, with a good following wind, might just get them out of trouble. The problem is that there is zero margin for error. Take away a single component, attempt anything in the wrong order then an ancient curse is activated and the ground beneath our feet crumbles to dust.

The bad news had already been received a few days previously. Crysencio Summerville, the talisman of West Ham’s current revival, had yet to recover from the injury picked up in the FA Cup tie against Brentford. Will we come to regret this half-time substitution? But there was even worse news to come.

When the teams were announced it was no surprise that Nuno had opted to start with the eleven who had wrestled a precious point from Manchester City a week earlier. The subliminal message was clear. Another point here would do very nicely. Let’s face it, away at Villa Park wasn’t high on anyone’s the list of winnable games. The only grain of optimism being the hosts poor recent run of form in the absence of several influential midfielder players.

Whatever the game plan was going to be, it was thrown into disarray when Jean-Clair Todibo was injured in the warmup. Assuming they had trained all week with a three centre-back formation in mind, the obvious solution would have been a like-for-like swap. But nothing says a lack of trust in your £40 million, £100 per week backup better than deciding to disrupt the entire plan instead. If he can’t be called upon for this type of emergency, why is he on the bench in the first place?

What actually happened was a repeat of one of those genius Nuno moments from earlier in the season. A plan which, in his mind, was imagined as a complex game of four-dimensional snakes and ladders. Aaron Wan-Bissaka man-marking Morgan Rogers, Jarrod Bowen filling in as emergency right back, and Pablo Felipe deployed in wide left midfield. With Pablo and Tomas Soucek about as mobile in midfield as a pair of clowns on stilts, the game was lost before it had begun. No structure, no cohesion and no goal threat. The trap had been triggered. Darts flew, tunnels collapsed, and a giant rolling boulder thundered towards the West Ham goal as Villa awoke from their slumbers awoke to rediscover Champions League bound form.

To think that a few years ago the two clubs occupied a similar position as hopeful pretenders to the rich six throne. Oh, what a sprinkling of boardroom competence and ambition can bring you in the right hands. In contrast, all we have learned (to our cost) from West Ham’s board is that incompetence not only makes them bad at running the club but also prevents them from recognising how bad they are.

West Ham’s resistance lasted barely 15 minutes. Villa had been looking to target Mads Hermansen’s obvious weakness and uncertainty in the air at set pieces. But it was an alternative and well worked passing routine from a corner that drew first blood. The ball ending up with McGinn on the edge of area whose curled shot evaded the desperate dive of the Hammer’s keeper – who should have done better in my opinion.

The closest West Ham came to a leveller was in the immediate aftermath. Taty failing/ not trying hard enough to get firm contact onto a Bowen cross. After that it was one-way traffic with only the heroics of Konstantinos Mavropanos keeping the score respectable. Quite how referee Paul Tierney saw the excellent tackle on Watkins as a penalty is indicative of the ever-declining refereeing standards. For once, VAR did its job – clearly and obviously.

Watkins would get the last laugh, however, scrambling home in the 68th minute to finally kill the game off. It was a textbook catalogue of West Ham errors. Bowen giving the ball away cheaply in the final third. Tomas Soucek so slow in tracking Roger’s run that even VAR had announced check complete before he caught up. And finally, Hermansen spilling Rogers’ tame shot into the delighted Watkins’ path. Game over!

There was just enough time remaining for a masterclass from substitute Adama Traore, showcasing his full repertoire of comical misdirected and overhit crosses.

In truth, it was a game that few expected to win. But nevertheless, it was a worryingly disappointing and passive performance from Nuno’s men. Yet, in the bigger picture; in the realm of take one game at a time management, nothing has been decided. The games that we might hope to win are still to come – home to Wolves, Everton and Leeds, away at Brentford and Palace. There are points still to win.

If something good can come out from the dreaded international break, it is the opportunity to get Summerville fit for the run-in. The future may depend on his recovery rate improving considerably on his previous seven-month absence.

Elsewhere, Nottingham Forest were the big winners from the weekend. Picking up three points from an unexpectedly comfortable romp at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium. It turns out that reports of the north Londoner’s corner turning had been wildly exaggerated. They will no doubt now be looking for yet another replacement caretaker manager. What’s Ryan Mason doing now? Leeds will regard it as two points dropped against Brentford on Friday night.

Time to regroup then Hammers. The most recent battle was lost but the war is not yet over. As one well known presidential politician put it in a late night post:

“West Ham United, very underrated team, by the way. People don’t talk about them enough, but I do. I know football, maybe better than anyone, and I’m hearing VERY STRONG things about their survival chances. Very strong.

The so-called “experts” are saying relegation. WRONG! Total losers. They said the same thing about my many great successes and look how that turned out. West Ham has tremendous fans, really incredible people, and a beautiful stadium. London Stadium, fantastic place, I’ve heard.

They just need a little confidence, maybe a few better decisions from management (won’t name names!), and they will STAY UP. I guarantee it. People are coming up to me, big fans, tough guys, saying: “Sir, West Ham has plenty of bubbles left to blow.” And you know what? They’re right.“

MAKE THE IRONS GREAT AGAIN!

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer runs again – and the margins tighten further as West Ham travel to Villa on Sunday

With eight games now remaining, Deep Block has been rebooted once more. West Ham’s survival equation continues to shift, and while nothing is settled, the picture is becoming clearer. Survival is still far from comfortable, but it is increasingly realistic.

Since the last run of the Under The Hammers Supercomputer, one more fixture has been converted from theory into fact, and crucially it was one that was previously written off as a free hit.

The latest result that was added to the model is last weekend’s unexpected 1-1 draw at home to Manchester City. That was predicted to be a defeat and a free hit. That point matters a great deal. The original projection assumed zero points from Manchester City. Instead, West Ham added one unexpected but fully deserved point, further improving the underlying survival maths and continuing the recent pattern of outperforming expectation.

Across the four games now completed since the first model was run, West Ham have taken 5 points, compared to an original projection of 2. That three-point swing can make all the difference.

Just as important as West Ham’s own result was what happened elsewhere. And nobody pulled away from us. Last week Leeds drew, Tottenham drew and Nottingham Forest drew. In fact all six teams at the bottom of the table drew. For the second week running, none of West Ham’s direct rivals managed to create separation. That collective stalling is increasingly significant.

The bottom of the table now reads:

• 15th: Leeds – 32 points
• 16th: Tottenham – 30 points
• 17th: Nottingham Forest – 29 points
• 18th: West Ham United – 29 points
• 19th: Burnley – 20 points
• 20th: Wolves – 17 points

West Ham are still just one point below the lower safety line of one point per game. With eight matches left, Deep Block updates the numbers as follows:

• Likely safety threshold: 38–40 points
• Points currently held: 29
• Points required: 9–11 from the final 8 games

That equates to roughly 1.1–1.4 points per match, a rate that now closely matches West Ham’s recent form rather than exceeding it. The current form (last 6 league games) for the teams under consideration with points per game in brackets:

• West Ham 9 (1.5)
• Leeds 6 (1.0)
• Forest 3 (0.5)
• Tottenham 1 (0.2)

Even extending ‘current form’ to eight games the results don’t differ much. Points per game (last 8):

• West Ham 1.5
• Leeds 0.88
• Forest 0.88
• Tottenham 0.38

The margins remain tight, but the task is no longer extreme. Next up we travel to Aston Villa on Sunday, a difficult task but not meaningless. The fixture remains firmly in the low-probability column based on the season as a whole. Villa sit in fourth place in the table but current form is less impressive with just five points from their last six games, four points below our total. But Villa at home are aggressive, intense and well-drilled. It won’t be easy.

The draw against Manchester City has bought us a small amount of breathing room. This is no longer a game that must deliver points to keep hope alive. Instead, it is an opportunity to add further unexpected value. A draw at Villa Park would be an excellent outcome. Even defeat does not materially damage the model, provided West Ham continue to take points in the games that follow. The pressure here is asymmetrical: Villa need to win to justify their position; West Ham can afford to be pragmatic, compact and opportunistic.

Perhaps one of the most important fixtures of the weekend from a West Ham perspective happens elsewhere when Tottenham host Nottingham Forest. This is the definition of a relegation six-pointer between two sides struggling badly for form and confidence. So what are we looking for? A draw is perhaps the best-case scenario for West Ham, freezing both rivals in place. A Forest win drags Tottenham fully into the danger zone. A Spurs win prevents Forest pulling away but keeps Tottenham within touching distance. Either way they both can’t win and that matters. Incidentally Leeds are at home to an inconsistent Brentford side who are seventh in the table and have collected nine points from their last six, losing just once, results comparable to our own.

Leeds are often thought to be strong at home but have only won six of their 15 games. Tottenham have won just twice. Forest, like West Ham have collected more points on their travels than at home.

What has changed since the original supercomputer projection? The pattern is now clear. West Ham are picking up points where none were expected. Rivals are failing to capitalise on opportunities to escape away from us. The psychological pressure has subtly shifted up the table. Deep Block originally projected an 18th-place finish on around 37 points. Based on real results, that projection now sits closer to 40 – and crucially, with a far wider range of viable pathways to get there.

The original conclusions still stand. Wolves, Everton and Leeds at home remain decisive. Palace and Brentford away remain the most likely draw opportunities. If that all happened then we’d reach 40 points. But the margin for error has widened. West Ham no longer need everything to go perfectly. In conclusion the situation is still fragile, but increasingly viable. West Ham are not safe, we are not comfortable, but we are alive, competitive, and very much in the fight. We didn’t really expect that a few weeks ago did we?

With eight games to go, Deep Block believes survival is now genuinely achievable rather than merely hopeful. It may yet go to the final day. It may yet hinge on a single moment. And if it does, well, this is the West Ham Way.

The Fall and Rise of Nuno’s West Ham: A Path to Safety Or Too Little Too Late

The last two months has seen an amazing turn around in spirit and fortunes at West Ham. Will that momentum be enough to keep their heads above the relegation line?

Do you remember the coin pusher machines that were a common feature in seaside amusement arcades? Where no matter how many pennies you fed in, the moving tray refused to push the huge pile of cash over the edge and into the collection trough. Well, this season’s relegation battle is starting to take on a similar appearance.

This time last year, it was all over bar the shouting. Ipswich and Leicester were 12 points from safety and Southampton a further eight points behind them. In the final table, 26 points would have been sufficient to survive. This season, the pieces are far more reluctant to fall.

The weekend’s results were as inconclusive as it was possible to get. Leeds, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and ourselves each picking up a single point. Forest will be the most disappointed having dropped valuable points at home to Fulham. A point apiece for West Ham and Tottenham, however, probably exceeded expectations. But then, predicting the outcome of games as the season draws to a close and attention is focused elsewhere always becomes increasingly troublesome.

For the briefest of overnight moment, the Hammers managed to climb out of the bottom three for the first time since 30 November. While there’s no doubt the situation remains on a knife edge, it is West Ham who are the side with moment. Another great escape feels possible but, as they say, “there’s many a slip ‘twixt cup and lip”

When West Ham lost at home to Nottingham Forest on 6 January, it was their tenth consecutive game without a win. The Guardian match report opened as follows:

“West Ham are drifting towards the most gutless of relegations. The London Stadium was half empty on another dismal night, encapsulating the apathy gripping this miserable club, and it is hard to see a way out for Nuno Espirito Santo’s accident prone side after a combination of misfortune and dismal defending left them seven points below Nottingham Forest in 17th place.”

As well as being seven points behind Forest, they were eight behind Leeds and 13 behind Tottenham. Those gaps are now zero, three and one point respectively. The last six games table illustrates West Ham’s current momentum advantage. It is a period where the three rivals have won just one game between them – ironically Leeds victory over Nottingham Forest.

After the Forest defeat, many of us had already resigned themselves to relegation even if we didn’t say it out loud. Now, making the drop from the current resurgent position would be doubly disappointing. So, what has changed?  How did we progress from gutless performances and dismal defending to the fighting spirit and dogged resilience that was on show against Manchester City?

The answer lies in a combination of factors. The arrival of Paco Jemez, an adventurous foil to Nuno’s caution. The signings of Taty and Pablo allowing higher pressing and creating space for Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville to operate in. The introduction of Alex Disasi, a formidable presence in the centre of defence that has brought the best out of Dinos Mavropanos and Jean-Clair Todibo. Indeed, a defence that was once Keystone Cops and is now operating with all the competence and precision of a Formula 1 pit crew is one of the biggest turnarounds in my personal football memory.

The clincher, though, has been the ability to take the field without Lucas Paqueta and Max Kilman in the side. For different reasons each was detrimental to the cohesion, unity and team spirit we now see on the pitch.

The bottom line is a system that suits the players. One that is aligned with capabilities, that the players can understand, and which has bred belief and confidence. The antithesis of Potter’s ‘here’s how I want to play regardless of whether you can do it’.

Looking back, it is unfortunate that it took so long to get here. The slow recovery under Nuno could still be our undoing if we cannot outrun our opponents as the season draws to a close. In that sense, the improvement mirrors the Great Escape season of 2006/7 where Alan Curbishley only managed six points from his opening 12 games in charge – including a first day victory.

I am already starting to experience pre-match tension at the thought of having to win on the final day to preserve our Premier League status. I’m really hoping it doesn’t come to that.

As Richard pointed out in his latest Supercomputer article, the Manchester City fixture was something of a free hit in the run-in. They are the one team we rarely get anything from even in the best of times. So, to come away with a point was exceptional despite the ‘needs must’ pragmatic approach to the game. A 100% goals to shots ratio is a rare occurrence indeed.

It was a tremendous effort from the Hammers and further endorsement of the spirit that now exists within the team. I find it intensely irritating when the click bait sites feel obliged to hand out a 3/10 rating to whoever they claim ‘stank the place out’ this weekend just to justify a headline. These are not fan sites!

As much as it was a team performance, Mavropanos and Todibo were both superb at the back with excellent support from Disasi, Diouf and Hermansen in goal. It is a solid foundation for the remaining eight games and the FA Cup adventure to come.

As far as Manchester City are concerned, they are well below the standards they have set for themselves in previous seasons. They are not yet out of the title race – with a game in hand and a home fixture with Arsenal to come – but the current side lacks the charisma it once had in the shape of Kompany, Toure, De Bruyne, (David) Silva and Aguero.

It’s possible that we are seeing the end of days for Pep Guardiola as City manager. I would love to see him prove his chops outside a big two club in any league. Just to see how good he really is without boundless funds to support him.

Next stop for West Ham is Villa Park next Sunday. The Villains have experienced a massive injury inspired slump over recent weeks and have a midweek Europa League tie in midweek to overcome. It might not be as formidable a test as it once appeared. If Summerville makes a return from injury, I could even be quietly confident. COYI!

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer has been rebooted to re-run West Ham’s survival equation

With nine games to go the supercomputer has updated the maths behind West Ham’s chances of staying up. Survival that once looked desperate is now doable. We are not safe or comfortable but it’s closer than it looked a few weeks ago.

Since the Under The Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block, last ran its projections (prior to the Bournemouth game) three of the twelve remaining fixtures have now been completed, replacing twelve hypothetical outcomes with more hard data to assess our survival chances.

Results from those games:

  • West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth (H) – Draw (predicted draw)
  • Liverpool 5-2 West Ham (A) – Loss (predicted loss)
  • Fulham 0-1 West Ham (A) – Win (predicted draw)

These results delivered 4 points from a possible 9, outperforming the original projection of two draws and a loss from these fixtures by two points. In particular, the away win at Fulham is a significant upgrade on the supercomputer’s expectations and materially improves the survival equation.

After 29 matches, West Ham now sit 18th in the Premier League with 28 points, level on points with Nottingham Forest in 17th but behind on goal difference. The teams in the relegation dogfight (the bottom six) currently read:

• 15th: Leeds – 31 points
• 16th: Tottenham – 29 points
• 17th: Nottingham Forest – 28 points
• 18th: West Ham United – 28 points
• 19th: Burnley – 19 points
• 20th: Wolves – 16 points

Crucially, the safety line is currently 29 points based on the season to date (exactly a point a game), meaning West Ham are now just one point behind that current safety level, with momentum firmly shifting in our favour.

With 9 games remaining, the survival target can now be recalibrated:

• Likely safety threshold at current performance levels: 38 points
• Points currently held: 28
• Points required: 10 from the final 9 matches

That equates to 1.11 points per match, which is lower than the rate required in the original model and less than West Ham’s recent form (1.33 per match in last six games).

Of course, results elsewhere can change the safety threshold and 38 might not be enough. But based on current figures Deep Block believes that a spread of 38-40 will be the level needed.

The upcoming schedule still presents major challenges, but the pressure has eased slightly thanks to the win at Fulham:

  • Manchester City (H) – Free hit
  • Aston Villa (A) – Low probability, but a point possible
  • Wolves (H) – Must‑win
  • Crystal Palace (A) – Likely draw but winnable
  • Everton (H) – Crucial and winnable
  • Brentford (A) – Likely draw
  • Arsenal (H) – Low probability
  • Newcastle (A) – Low probability
  • Leeds (H) – Potential season‑definer, perhaps must win?

The original identification of Wolves, Everton and Leeds at home as decisive fixtures to win remains valid. The difference now is that the margin for error has widened slightly.

What has changed since the original projection? The Fulham win is pivotal; it reduces the required points tally and shifts psychological pressure onto our rivals. Forest and Tottenham have failed to pull away allowing West ham to close the gap. Burnley and Wolves are effectively gone, leaving only one realistic relegation place still in play.

Deep Block originally projected a 37‑point finish and 18th place. Based on real results to date, that projection now reads closer to 39 points. Our survival chances have improved materially over the past three games. While relegation remains a genuine risk, the path to safety is now clearer and more achievable than when the original model was run.

If West Ham can beat Wolves, Everton and Leeds, and add two draws elsewhere (the games at Palace and Brentford are the most likely) as per the original forecasts then Deep Block predicts that Premier League survival is more likely than not. But the margins remain tight and depend upon results elsewhere. Failure to achieve the predicted eleven points from these games will likely need points gained elsewhere in the more challenging fixtures.

Assuming that Burnley and Wolves are as good as down (albeit not yet mathematically) the current form (last six games) of the four teams likely facing the final relegation place is as follows:

West Ham: 8 points
Leeds: 5 points
Forest: 3 points
Tottenham: 1 point

If that form continues into the final nine fixtures then we would be home and dry. But the games towards the end of the season tend to be unpredictable. Three games ago Deep Block predicted that we would probably just fall short. It now predicts that we might just be safe. It may yet come down to the final day. And if it does, well this is West Ham. We wouldn’t have it any other way.

West Ham Treble Dream: FA Cup Success, Premier League Survival and Tottenham Relegation

Happy Hammer Talk. You got to have a dream, if you don’t have a dream. how you gonna have a dream come true?

I didn’t get to watch Monday evening’s cup match live and so ended up following the penalty shootout on the LiveScore phone app. It brought back memories of waiting for Ceefax to refresh. The text version delivered the same result but without the beauty of witnessing five expertly taken spot kicks – and the stupidity of Ouattara’s Panenka.

Pre-match speculation centred on how the two managers would approach the game. With the Hammers mired in a relegation battle and Brentford with an outside chance of European qualification, would it be another contest between two makeshift second string teams? As it turned out, both managers (to their credit) named near full-strength sides. Giving the mother of all cup competitions the respect its rich and glorious history deserves.

I’m at a loss to understand why Fulham and Sunderland had elected to rest key players for their ties over the weekend. Appropriately, both felt the wrath of the football gods – ejected from the competition to concentrate on securing tenth place in the league.

When West Ham and Brentford took the field, they already knew that a home tie against Leeds awaited the victors in the sixth round. It was yet more evidence of TV’s grip on football when schedules are deemed more important than traditions.

The game itself made for a lively hard fought cup tie. The Hammers should really have wrapped the game up in normal time but for the third round in succession had to endure an energy sapping period of extra time to reach a conclusion. Then came the penalties. I’ve never been a fan of settling games by penalties but there’s no denying they are dramatic. The tension wasn’t obvious on my phone when Dinos Mavropanos stepped up to take the deciding kick, and I can imagine how nervous it was in the ground. And what a strike it was to win the game. From Greek Tragedy to Greek God in 12 yards.

West Ham had made it through to the quarter finals for the first time in ten years, and only the second time since the Liverpool final of 2006 which we don’t talk about– a far less happy penalty shootout experience. Avoiding the ‘big’ teams in the draw means progression to the semis is a distinct possibility although Leeds will be no pushover. Beyond that, a good following wind and the jeopardy of two one-off games are all that remain.

If you are looking for omens from previous FA Cup wins then you will be delighted to know that eliminating London opposition has been the consistent feature. It was Charlton and Orient in 1963/4, QPR, Arsenal and Fulham in 1974/5 and Orient and Arsenal in 1979/80. The minimum requirement for a 2025/6 win has already been met (QPR and Brentford), setting things up nicely for a final victory against Chelsea or Arsenal.

The mistakes of 1922/3 and 2005/6 were in not playing any London teams at all on the road to Wembley/ Cardiff.

For all the heady excitement of cup football it is a return to the harsh realities of Premier League survival at the weekend. With Wolves and Burnley effectively out of the picture, the final relegation place is almost certainly between West Ham, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds. Nine games to save their respective skins.

The good news for West Ham is that they are the form team of the four as the following table shows.

If the form of the last six and/ or ten games was extended over the remaining games, then West Ham would top the mini league on 40/ 41 points. Tottenham would be relegated on 31/ 32 points. Unfortunately, there are sure to be hiccups along the way to prevent this ideal outcome playing out.

I’ve seen lots of online debate about who has the hardest/ easiest run-in, but it’s fairly inconclusive in my opinion. Especially where results become more unpredictable as the season draws to a close and players have one eye on the beach, glamourous finals or World Cup call-ups. Those in the boardroom might wring their hands over the incremental rewards of each rung of the Premier League table. But I doubt it’s much of a motivating factor for players, unless European qualification comes along with it.

The less good news for the Hammers is that the two games before the international break are against Manchester City and Aston Villa. It is over 10 years since we last beat the Abu Dhabi outfit. A run that includes17 defeats and just three draws. The chink of light is maybe they are not as formidable as they once were, and that the game is sandwiched the two legs of their annual Champions League encounter with Real Madrid. A defeat tonight in Madrid followed by an air traffic controller’s might tilt the scales a little in our favour.

The Villa game might also offer hope if they continue to be without the influential midfield presence of McGinn, Tielemans and Kamara.

It is important that the Hammers keep a degree of momentum and two or three points from those two games would be awesome (but unexpected). They are games which do not feature high on my list of ‘winnables’ but there is a psychological need to keep the gap manageable.

It was great to see the return of Pablo on Monday night. Although he has yet to bother the scorer, his presence does appear to have made a clear difference if results are anything to go by. If we mark the QPR cup game as the start of the West Ham recovery, then they have won an impressive seven from 11 in all competitions since.

The less encouraging injury news concerns Crysencio Summerville who has very much been at the centre of the recent uptick in performances and results. There’s a lot of internet noise about the severity of his injury and so everything will be kept crossed for a speedy return. The last time he went off injured, he wasn’t seen again for seven months. Get well soon. COYI!           

The Big Names Advance in the FA Cup As West Ham and Brentford Chase A Place In The Last Eight

As West Ham prepare to face Brentford for a place in the FA Cup Quarter Finals, do the biggest Premier League clubs really lack interest in the FA Cup?

West Ham host Brentford on Monday evening with a place in the FA Cup quarter‑finals at stake, completing the fifth round of the competition. The tie offers an intriguing contrast in styles and priorities, with both clubs viewing the FA Cup as a genuine opportunity for progress, but for us of course the priority has to be ensuring that we are playing Premier League football next season. Nevertheless I would like to think that we really want to progress in the competition, but no doubt some would disagree and want us to forget the cup and concentrate on survival.

I’d like to think that West Ham will see the match as a chance to build momentum and pursue silverware. With (hopefully?) a strong home atmosphere at the London Stadium, I hope that we approach the game aggressively, particularly given the success of several elite clubs already reaching the quarter‑finals. I believe that progress in the competition would add to the progress that we have made in previous weeks.

Brentford, meanwhile, have shown themselves to be well‑organised and difficult opponents. Their tactical discipline and ability to frustrate ‘stronger’ teams make them a dangerous proposition, especially if we fail to control the tempo of the game. Brentford’s willingness to press and counter could prove decisive.

With no replays and everything decided on the night, the match is likely to be tense and finely balanced. The winner will join an increasingly elite group in the quarter‑finals, further underlining the FA Cup’s continued relevance in modern English football.

In recent years, it has become common to argue that the biggest Premier League clubs are no longer truly interested in the FA Cup. This theory is based on factors such as fixture congestion, financial priorities and the growing importance of European qualification. However, the progress of Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City into the quarter‑finals of the 2025–26 FA Cup strongly challenges this assumption and suggests that elite clubs still value the competition.

Those who argue that big clubs lack interest point primarily to the modern football calendar. Top Premier League sides regularly compete in domestic league matches, European tournaments and the cup competitions, often playing many extra matches in a season. With payment for league position and European qualification offering far greater financial rewards than the FA Cup, managers are frequently accused of prioritising league position over cup success. Heavy squad rotation in early rounds is often cited as evidence that the FA Cup has been relegated to secondary importance.

There is some validity to this argument. Elite managers are under pressure to manage player workloads and avoid injuries, particularly during decisive stages of the league season. As a result, weakened line‑ups can increase the likelihood of shock exits (Crystal Palace for example) reinforcing the perception that the FA Cup is expendable. However, rotation alone does not necessarily imply disinterest. Instead, it reflects the depth and resources available to top clubs in the modern era. Two in particular, Arsenal and Manchester City possess squads strong enough to rotate without abandoning competitiveness.

I fail to understand why mid-table clubs such as Palace and Fulham (on Sunday) cannot do a better job of squad rotation to ensure progress in the competition. I know that league position brings a bigger financial reward but fans have other priorities. Take Fulham yesterday for example. I’m not their manager but if I was I’d start with my strongest team, try to get a goal or two and then rest some players. But no, Southampton held them and then Silva brought on the big guns late in the game (too late), only for the Saints to progress with a penalty in added time. It serves them right.

I’m not sure if Sunderland did the same but you wouldn’t expect a mid-table Premier League team with nothing else to play for other than league position to be beaten by the side at the foot of League One.

The 2025–26 FA Cup provides strong counter‑evidence to the theory of declining interest. Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City were the first four teams to reach the quarter‑finals, and all did so by negotiating challenging fixtures (well perhaps not Arsenal!). These were not symbolic victories or dead‑rubber matches; they involved competitive performances, often away from home, against motivated opposition. The presence of four of the Premier League’s most successful clubs at this stage suggests clear intent rather than indifference.

Furthermore, success in the FA Cup still carries significant prestige. It remains the oldest domestic cup competition in world football and continues to offer silverware, historical significance and a route into European competition. For managers judged on trophies and for clubs seeking to maintain winning cultures, the FA Cup remains an important objective. Once teams reach the latter stages, selection patterns typically reflect this, with stronger line‑ups and increased tactical focus. And there is nothing better for the fans than a day out at Wembley. This now extends to the semi-finals as well as the final. Our victories in 1964, 1975 and 1980 live long in my memory even though they are now many years in the past.

In conclusion, while financial realities and fixture congestion have changed how elite clubs approach the FA Cup, they have not removed its importance. The progress of Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City into the quarter‑finals demonstrates that the biggest Premier League clubs are still invested in the competition. Rather than abandoning the FA Cup, they are managing it strategically, ensuring competitiveness without sacrificing broader season objectives. I hope that we can join them in the draw for the quarter finals. Southampton or Port Vale at the London Stadium would be good if we progress. What are the chances of the ‘big four’ avoiding each other? That would get the conspiracy theorists going. COYI!