It’s A West Ham Scorcher: Seven Minute Sunny Spell Triggers Soaring Expectations

As West Ham progress through to the second round of the Carabao cup, there is a danger of being seduced by an emphatic scoreline that was not as flattering as it looks.

A wise man once proclaimed, “the truth of the battle is whatever the victor deems it to be.’ I’m not sure who it was, but probably some Chinese fella such as Master Po from the 1970’s Kung Fu TV series. In this spirit, significant swaths of the West Ham commentariat have deemed to interpret Saturday’s ‘comfortable’ 3 – 1 win against Portsmouth as an omen of a glorious Championship season to come. I fear this might be somewhat premature.

The reality of the performance was quite different. Although a pre-season friendly feel still hung in the air, the familiar fragile foibles of last season continued to haunt the London Stadium. A slow start, giving away possession, an inability to play through the lines, stilted movement, and a general lack of adventure. A repeat showing next weekend will result in a very unhappy return trip from East Lancashire.

Let’s remember that Portsmouth are a very average Championship side. They finished 18th last season and will most likely be in and around the lower reaches once more this time around. They looked tidy in possession but with (fortunately) little cutting edge. How and why were they able to dominate so completely for the first 40 minutes of the game is perplexing. Before the Hammers grabbed the equaliser, I believe they were trending at 65% possession.

In his post-match comments, Nuno praised the movement and combinations on show for each of the West Ham goals. But where had those attributes been hiding prior to the seven-minute goal blitz. A period where the best on offer were spells of pointless passing across the back – followed by hopeful punts up field once other options had been exhausted.

When Nuno is interviewed after games, he will frequently suggest that the way we play week in, week out is not what he wants. He is delighted by those brief moments where the team discovers its swaggers, where passing and movement spring to life, and confidence on the ball spreads through the team. Why then, do the players find it so difficult to deliver what he says he wants – and what, we must assume, he prepares them for? Do they not understand the instructions, are they scared to take any risks, is there no leadership on the pitch? How can the same plan fail in the same way with such monotonous regularity?

And what caused the sudden change of heart for those seven glorious minutes? The shock of going a goal behind? Or had someone spiked the hydration break water bottles with shots of concentrated Carabao Raspberry energy burst?

The idea of West Ham as runaway league leaders of the Championship built upon limited possession, scoring on the break, and lengthy periods of defensive game management seems highly implausible. A speculative long shot even though my knowledge of the breadth and depth of quality in the Championship is largely unknown. I just don’t see a quick return to the top level in prospect without a significant boost to the squad’s resources over the remaining days of the transfer window.

It is never ideal to leave most of your transfer business until after the season has started but it is a habit that has proven hard to break. The players yet to leave may be just as important as the new recruits as the club endeavours to manage its shaky finance, comply with the new squad ratio rules and buy a new drive belt for the broken fax machine. As a minimum, I expect we are hoping to offload the attitudes and costs of all three of Todibo, AWB and Fullkrug before the end of the month. Incomings must then address the most pressing gaps in what remains a dangerously sketchy squad.

My simple view when assessing players is that they must primarily be competent in fulfilling the basic purpose of their role. It’s no use being the greatest keeper with the ball at your feet if your handling is weak and you cannot dominate the area. Futile being a ball playing centre half or marauding full back if you don’t have the bravery or positional nous to the fundamental defensive duties. Pointless running around all day, huffing and puffing as a forward if you’re not scoring goals or providing assists. Sadly, we fall down in so many positions. Astute prioritisation and a process of make do and mend will be of over-riding importance.

If it was my decision, creative midfield and wide left would top the list followed by striker and centre back reinforcements. Hopefully, each of these can be satisfied even if it means some are loans from Premier League clubs.

We should forget to mention that there were some decent performances on Saturday. Taty and Jarrod Bowen showed they are sure to score goals at this level – and plenty of them given the right service. KWP did well and we saw flashes (but not the whole of the moon) from Lewis Orford and Mo Kante. I’d hope to see more of the latter pair but doubt they can yet be relied upon to carry the midfield through a gruelling 46 match season.

Listening to Nuno speak, I often detect an air of Master Po’s eastern mysticism in his persona. It would be entertaining and just as informative if he injected a hint of far-eastern philosophical nonsense into his press conferences. Reporter: “Jacob Waffle, Stratford Examiner, will you continue with the same ultra-cautious approach to games in the Championship that we saw last year in the Premier League?” Nuno: “Seek not to know the answers, but to understand the questions, Grasshopper”.

It’s worth a try and would make about as much sense as the usual answers. COYI!

West Ham United – the Quest for League Cup Glory: Six Decades of Near Misses and Frustrating Eliminations

Since the Football League Cup was launched in 1960, West Ham have enjoyed a fascinating, if ultimately frustrating, relationship with the competition. The competition arrived during one of the most successful periods in our history. Under manager Ron Greenwood, the club was developing a generation of stars including of course Bobby Moore, Geoff Hurst and Martin Peters. It was therefore no surprise that West Ham quickly established themselves as contenders in the new tournament.

I remember exactly when the competition began. It was our third season in the top flight and our very first game was at home to Charlton on a Monday night. John Dick, Bobby Moore and Malcolm Musgrove scored in a 3-1 win. The second round brought a trip to fourth division Darlington and a poor display saw us beaten 3-2! One of oh so many disappointments endured against lowly sides in our history. While we have lifted major trophies including the FA Cup (three times) and been successful in European competitions (twice), the League Cup in its many guises (currently the Carabao Cup) has remained elusive despite several memorable runs and two appearances in the final.

We were getting closer in 1963-64 when we reached the semi-final and lost the first leg at Leicester 4-3. A long gap to the second leg of almost two months, partly because of our run in the FA Cup that season which culminated in winning the trophy, and we were well placed to progress to the final. Disappointingly we lost the home leg 2-0 and another chance had gone.

Our greatest opportunity came in the 1965-66 season. Just months after winning the European Cup Winners’ Cup, we embarked on another impressive League Cup campaign. The Hammers reached the final after defeating Cardiff City 5-1 away in the semi-final second leg, one of the club’s biggest victories in the competition. The final was played over two legs, as was customary at the time. West Ham faced West Bromwich Albion but fell short, finishing as runners-up. We gained a 2-1 advantage in the first leg at Upton Park with goals from Johnny Byrne and Bobby Moore only to crash to a 4-1 defeat in the second leg. It remains one of the great “what if” moments in the club’s history. The defeat denied a side packed with England’s World Cup-winning talent the chance to add another major honour to an already glittering era.

In 1971-72 another fine run in the competition led to a semi-final with Stoke City which became a saga played out over four games. The first leg at Stoke was won 2-1 with goals from Best and Hurst. Surely this would be our year? There was drama in the second leg as, with Stoke 1-0 up with four minutes remaining Hurst stepped up to take a penalty – if he scored we would be at Wembley. Unfortunately Gordon Banks made a wonder save and the tie went to a replay at Hillsborough. That game resulted in a 0-0 stalemate, which meant a second replay at Old Trafford. The next game for twists, turns, upheavals and sheer football drama was one of the great cup ties of all time.

On 13 minutes keeper Bobby Ferguson went off for lengthy treatment to be replaced in goal by Bobby Moore. Later Stoke were awarded a penalty which Moore saved but the ball rebounded for Bernard to score. We then rallied with goals from Bonds and Brooking putting us 2-1 ahead. Ferguson, still concussed then returned to play in goal only to concede goals from Dobing and Conroy which saw Stoke reach the final. Which incidentally Stoke won beating Chelsea 2-1.  

The club had to wait a few more years for the next appearance in the final. In 1980-81, John Lyall’s side was enjoying one of the most remarkable periods in our history. Having won the FA Cup as a Second Division club in 1980, the Hammers returned to Wembley in pursuit of League Cup glory the following season. Once again, however, the trophy slipped through our grasp.

The first 90 minutes was goalless and the final went to extra time. Liverpool opened the scoring in the 118th minute, when defender Alan Kennedy scored. The goal was hotly contested as the shot passed over Sammy Lee of Liverpool in an offside position, obstructing the view of the West Ham goalkeeper, Phil Parkes. Referee Clive Thomas controversially allowed the goal to stand, his opinion being that Lee was not interfering with play. After the game, our usually placid West Ham manager, John Lyall, uncharacteristically expressed his anger to Thomas and said he “felt cheated”. This was later misrepresented by Thomas as Lyall saying that “Thomas had cheated”. The Liverpool lead lasted two minutes, as West Ham equalised courtesy of a Ray Stewart penalty, after a Liverpool handball on the line blocked a goal bound header from Alvin Martin After that 1-1 draw at Wembley full of controversy we finished runners-up for a second time when Liverpool won the replay 2-1 at Villa Park, a result that remains our closest approach to winning the competition since.

Although the trophy never arrived, the competition has provided several memorable moments for supporters. One of the most extraordinary came in October 1983 when West Ham defeated Bury 10-0 at Upton Park. The result remains the club’s record League Cup victory and one of the most emphatic wins in their history in any competition. We then bought Bury’s centre half, Paul Hilton for £100.000! You can’t make it up where West Ham are concerned.

There have also been painful defeats. Among the most notable was a 6-0 semi-final loss away to Oldham Athletic during the 1989-90 campaign, one of the heaviest League Cup defeats the club has suffered.

The Premier League era has produced mixed fortunes. While we have frequently done OK, deep runs have been relatively rare. Semi-final appearances in 2010-11 and 2013-14 offered hope of a return to Wembley, but neither campaign ended in silverware with two-legged defeats by Birmingham and Manchester City respectively. More recently, we reached the quarter-finals in 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2021-22, demonstrating a capacity to compete but falling short of the latter stages to Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham.

One modern highlight came in October 2021 when West Ham eliminated Manchester City on penalties in the fourth round. At the time, City had dominated the competition for much of the previous decade, making the result one of the club’s most celebrated League Cup victories in recent years. West Ham won the shoot-out 5-3 after a goalless draw.

Despite never winning the tournament, West Ham’s overall League Cup record reflects a club that has consistently been capable of producing memorable cup football. Few clubs can point to two final appearances, multiple semi-final runs and record-breaking victories while still describing the competition as unfinished business. Conversely some of the teams that have eliminated us include Darlington, Rotherham, Huddersfield, Stockport (twice), Barnsley, Luton, Oxford, Crewe, Bolton (three times), Northampton, Reading, Chesterfield, Aldershot and Wigan.

The contrast with the club’s (relative) success elsewhere only increases the sense of frustration. West Ham have won the FA Cup three times and claimed European honours in both 1965 and 2023, yet the League Cup remains absent from the honours list. The club officially records the two runner-up finishes, in 1966 and 1981 as its best achievements in the competition.

More than six decades after the tournament’s introduction, the League Cup remains one of the few major domestic honours missing from West Ham’s collection. From the Moore, Hurst and Peters era to the modern Premier League age, generations of Hammers have come close. The challenge for future teams is simple: finally complete the set and turn those near misses into a long-awaited triumph. But that is not about to happen any time soon.

On Saturday we face a first round home tie against another team from the Championship in Portsmouth. It will be nothing more than a pre-season runout in preparation for the important business of trying to regain our place in the Premier League which begins the following weekend when on the Sunday we travel to face fellow relegated side Burnley in the first of 46 challenging games. For the moment the League Cup will remain an afterthought.

Crisis? What Crisis? The Summer of Discontent Heats Up At The London Stadium

West Ham’s approach to new season has the level of preparedness usually associated with someone mistaking blind optimism for a successful strategy. What could possibly go wrong?

West Ham fans of any vintage are well used to the topsy-turvy nature of most football seasons. More turvy than topsy if the truth be told. But at least we used to have the summer break to forget all about it and watch the cricket instead. Nowadays, the close season is filled with almost as much drama, swinging from despair to hope and back again with each news cycle.

Intermittent relegation is a cross we’ve come to bear in east London. We may kid ourselves it shouldn’t happen, that it can never happen again, that we are too big and too rich a club to get things so wrong. But then here we are. Forever cursed with incompetent owners?

Emotions had understandably reached their lowest ebb when relegation was finally confirmed on 24 May. Here was a club with huge debt, expensive credit, plunging revenues, supporting a lopsided squad of overpaid misfits. Turmoil, fire sales, games played in a half empty London stadium, and visions of becoming a second Leicester City were reasonable predictions for the year ahead.

Then a few things happened to slowly lift the gloom. The much-despised David Sullivan resigned to spend more time with his lawyers and following his sidekick Baroness Brady of Knightsbridge out of the door. A joint statement from Daniel Kretinski and Vanessa Gold promised a share transfer deal and a newfound spirit of cooperation that would see the Czech become the club’s largest shareholder. At long last, a specialist director of recruitment had been appointed, and the club had played hard ball in extracting top of the range fees for the sales of Fernandes and Summerville. And loans to Barclay Bank had been paid off, although the more extortionate payday credit from Rights and Media Funding remained in place.

Perhaps things weren’t as bad as we feared after all. The situation was still light on detail. Had West Ham complied with the final year Premier League PSR rules, how would they meet Championship Squad Cost Ratio rules in a world of falling revenues, would the transfer funds received be used to pay off debt or improve the squad?

Regardless, a ray of optimism saw fit to raise its ugly head. And whenever that happens, it’s a sure sign that things are about to come crashing down. And so, it came to pass – and predictably it was a backwards pass! We discovered the boardroom pact was not as harmonious as presented, the pre-season games were a reminder of how one dimensional the football is under the current manager, and despite the gaping holes in the squad, the only new addition has been the permanent signing of Keiber Lamadrid.

Could there be a worse time to be caught in ownership limbo? It is difficult to see it not having knock-on implications in the day to day running of the club. The impasse in the original plan, it seems, were the conflicting desires of Kretinsky and Gold. For reasons unknown (but widely speculated upon), Kretinsky hadn’t wanted to increase his ownership above 50%, and the Gold Family Trust didn’t want to be left holding a small percentage of shares.

It has been suggested that the plan was for Kretinsky to find a separate buyer for the remainder of Gold’s shares but with the passing of time nothing came to fruition. Into this void enter Amanda Staveley and her consortium with an offer for the whole of the Golds shareholding which they saw as too good to refuse. Did Kretinsky fail to follow through or did the Golds renege on the deal. Both claim to be acting in the best interests of West Ham. What to make of it? The malign tentacles of Gold and Sullivan are far from history.

The latest move clearly upset Kretinsky and his desire for stability in the run up to the new season. There must now be a two-month two-round process before anything can be resolved. In round 1, existing shareholders have the right to buy the Gold shares in proportion to their existing holding – Sullivan and Kretinsky could buy 50.8% and 36% of the shares on offer respectively. Other minority shareholders have the same option. In round 2, any unsold shares can be purchased by those buying in round 1.

The general online consensus is that Sullivan is unlikely to be interested in increasing his stake – and he has remained uncharacteristically quiet about his position on the matter. So, everything depends on Kretinsky showing his colours. It will need to be an all or nothing play from him – either doing nothing or buying all the Gold shares to block Staveley’s bid – for now. Until she returns with an eye on Sullivan’s holding.

It has never been obvious what Kretinsky wants. He has been a mostly passive investor with West Ham, just one small part of his immense asset portfolio. The Sullivan situation may have forced his hand to act but possibly only to protect his original investment. Does he have any true appetite to become a majority owner? All we can do now is wait and hope the club does not enter a state of paralysis as the boardroom struggle plays out.

If things in the boardroom are a mess, then the omens on the pitch look no better. It came as a surprise to many when the club decided to persevere with Nuno Espirito Santo after last season’s events. Continuity is fine if what you want is more of the same. True, he was mostly lumbered with the squad he inherited, there was an upturn in form towards the end of the campaign, and he has a previous Championship promotion under his belt. But he wasn’t a late relegation battle arrival. He was appointed in September with plenty of opportunity to make his mark. Is his brand of cautious, counter attacking football really the route to success in the long, hard slog of a Championship season. I see no rationale why West Ham should be among the favourites for the title or automatic promotion.

As yet, nothing has been done to address the squad’s perennial on-field weaknesses: reliable goal-scoring front man; creativity in midfield; energetic defensive midfielder; and fearless central defender – virtually the whole spine of the team. I made the mistake of shelling out a fiver to watch Saturday’s friendly and how toothless was that performance against a side who just about managed to avoid the drop from Bundesliga 2 last season. OK, it was only a friendly, but you would expect to see signs of a team able to take control a game. Instead, it was a reprise of the plodding, unadventurous style that failed to impress in the Premier League.

Listening to players interviewed after games and I get the impression they have no belief either. Platitudes such as “we’re heading in the right direction”, “we need to keep growing as a team” and “we must keep pushing for what we want to achieve” had me checking whether David Brent had been appointed Director of Communications.

I do understand some of the original delay in recruitment while Nils Koppen got his feet under the table but to have done nothing on the eve of the new season is disastrous. Other clubs have shown it is possible to recover from a slow start, but it’s a dangerous game. And far more difficult when you add in an uber cautious coach.

Unfortunately, I’m not on the same page as those who see youth team players stepping up to fill the missing pieces. I love it when a youth team breaks through and am loathe to write any off any individual too quickly. But for a self-styled ‘academy of football’ West Ham have a wretched record of youth development in recent years. Sadly, I’ve yet to be convinced by any of the current crop but will be more than happy to be proved wrong.

The academy might like to think of itself as a production line of talent, but it is turning out identikit graduates where discipline has been drilled in at the expense of flair and risk taking. Players whose first instinct is control, half turn, and short pass. Nothing more. It’s like the way plant breeders eliminated taste from fruit by prioritising appearance. We were perhaps lucky that the only notable academy graduate of the past 15 years got his early footballing education at a completely different club.

What we are left with is players who look elegant but fall short on the other attributes required to make it as a top-level footballer – strength, determination, resilience, stamina, positional sense, awareness, vision, and decision-making. Whether that is peculiar to West Ham or is a wider problem of the rarified academy environment, I don’t know. Are these the skills which were once honed during 20-a-side matches in the street or over the park?

Apart from all that, preparations for the new season look perfect. What could possibly go wrong? COYI!

The Gold and Sullivan Years in Numbers: An Era of Stagnation and Squandered Opportunity

We hope it’s all over. Running the numbers on an unenterprising, wasteful, self-aggrandising and shameful period in the history of West Ham United

It all started with low expectations, went mostly downhill, and ended in a slurry of sleaze and shady behaviour. With the Gold and Sullivan era hopefully gone forever, we look back on the numbers which define this wasteful and distasteful period of West Ham history.

16 – the number of seasons ‘competing’ in the topflight. The first match on 26 January 2010, a 1-1 draw away at Portsmouth leaving West Ham in 16th position. The last, a 3-0 home win on 24 May 2026 confirming the Hammer’s relegation with an 18th place finish.

2 – the number of Premier League relegations. One a consequence of their first disastrous managerial appointment in 2011. The other, the culmination of shocking mismanagement in the aftermath of the European Conference success and the transfer of Declan Rice.

6 – the number of top ten finishes (excluding the Championship year) out of 16 attempts. The highest was 6th place in 2020/21, a season which also set West Ham Premier League records for number of wins (19) and points gained (65).

633 – total number of league games played, of which 214 were won (33.8%) and 258 lost (40.7%). In the Premier League only, the 190 victories from 587 games (32.3%) were overshadowed by 250 defeats (42.6%). West Ham stand proud as holders of the record for all-time number of Premier League defeats.

13th – the average league finishing position throughout the Gold and Sullivan years. This is reflected in an average Premier League points tally of 45. As a club featuring regularly among the world’s top twenty richest – and one of the top 8 richest in England – these are far from impressive statistics.

3 – the number of topflight seasons when West Ham won more league games than they lost. And unsurprisingly, these are also the only seasons that ended with a positive goal difference. The seasons in question: 2015/16, 2020/21 and 2021/22.

9 – number of managers employed – technically, it is 10 if you count David Moyes twice. The entire rogue’s gallery comprises Gianfranco Zola, Avram Grant, Sam Allardyce, Slaven Bilic, David Moyes, Manuel Pellegrini, Julen Lopetegui, Graham Potter, and Nuno Espirito Santo. The strongest link in terms of Premier League win percentage is David Moyes (36.87%). The weakest was Avram Grant (18.92%). Anywhere between 45% and 55% is usually considered to be a strong managerial performance.

2.9 billion – the cumulative amount in pounds received in revenues over 17 seasons from broadcast, matchday and commercial sources. A club record of £270 million was posted in the 2024 accounts. It is estimated that relegation will cost the club at least £100 million in income next season.

1.34 billion – the amount paid in euros (sorry, all Transfermkt data is in euros) for player transfer fees. At today’s exchange rate that is £1.15 billion. In addition to the 92 players signed for a fee, there were 36 free transfers and 41 loans – a total of 169 players in all. The record signing was Sebastien Haller at €50 million with another 17 players costing €25 million or more. 

650 million– the amount received (€) for player transfers. West Ham sold 67 players and allowed 55 to leave on a free. The record sale was Declan Rice (€116 m) with only five other players sold for €25 million or more. The sale of Rio Ferdinand in 2000 continues to hold sixth place in the ranking of highest transfer fees received.

1.1 billion– the cumulative amount (£) paid in wages to achieve very little. The wage bill as well as transfer spend has increased significantly in recent years. All to assemble a squad fit for relegation.

16,711,118 – the number shuffling through the turnstiles at West Ham home matches, both at Upton Park and the London Stadium.

47,475 – the average home attendance (excluding COVID restricted games) across 352 matches – they keep turning up regardless. The average for games played at Upton Park was 32,836. At the London Stadium, 58,219. Attendance numbers have now become theoretical rather than actual body counts with the highest recorded attendances of 35,005 at Upton Park and 62,477 at the London Stadium.

214 – total number of players fielded by West Ham during first team games in all competitions. 81 of whom made fewer than 10 starts for the club.

426 – the highest number of appearances made by an individual player during the GSB era – Mark Noble. Next best is Aaron Cresswell at 369 with the following each breaking the 200 barrier: Michail Antonio (323), Tomas Soucek (284), Jarrod Bowen (280), Angelo Ogbonna (249), Declan Rice (245), Manuel Lanzini (226), Winston Reid (222), James Tomkins (205) and Pablo Fornals (203).

85 – the most goals scored by an individual player in all competitions – the ever-reliable Bowen. Antonio is next with 83 and he remains the club’s all-time leading Premier League goalscorer (68 to Bowen’s 65.) Just 5 other players managed 20 or more Premier League goals to their name. These are Soucek (41), Noble (37), Andy Carroll (33), Lanzini (27), and Marko Arnautovic (21). The frequently injured Carroll is the only player brought in as an out and out striker to feature on the list.

16 – most league goals scored in a season by an individual player – Bowen in 2023/24. Second place with 14 goes to Carlton Cole in the 2011/12 Championship season. West Ham players have reached double figures on just eight other occasions in the Premier League: Bowen (13) in 2024/25, Bowen (12) in 2021/22, Arnautovic (11) in 2017/18, Antonio (10) in 2019/20, Antonio & Soucek (10) in 2020/21, Diafra Sakho (10) in 2014/15 and Kevin Nolan (10) in 2012/13.

1069– the total number of goals scored by West Ham (1.39 per game) in all competitions. Goals conceded totalled 1083 (1.41 per game). For league games only, the numbers are 849 for (1.34 per game) and 952 against (1.50 per game).

8 – the most goals scored by West Ham in a single game – the 8-0 win against Macclesfield in the 2018/19 League Cup. The biggest league win was 6-0 in the Championship against Brighton (2011/12). Although West Ham scored 5 on 4 occasions in cup competitions, they were unable to repeat that feat in the Premier League. Ironically, the last 5 goal haul came just before the takeover – a 5-3 win over Burnley in November 2009. The Hammers bagged 4 on 30 separateoccasions, 20 times in topflight games.

6 – most goals conceded in a single match – once in a 6-0 league cup semi, first leg defeat by Manchester City in 2014, and again in the league versus Arsenal in 2024.  The West Ham rearguard conceded 5 goals on 12 occasions and 4 goals 33 times.

8 – highest aggregate score in a West Ham game – the 8-0 win against Macclesfield. There were 7 games featuring 7 goals – 4-3 wins against Huddersfield and Portsmouth, 2-5 losses to Liverpool and Arsenal, and 3-4 defeats to Bournemouth, Palace and Newcastle.

139 – the number of West Ham clean sheets earned in Premier League games (23.6% of games played)

161 – the number of Premier League games in which the Hammers failed to score (27.4%)

35 – the total number of goalless games featuring West Ham (5.9%). Goalless draws peaked during the Sam Allardyce years, accounting for 40% of the total.

13 – the number of players to win the Hammer of The Year Award. Declan Rice has three wins, Scott Parker and Mark Noble two, Winston Reid, Aaron Cresswell, Dimitri Payet, Michail Antonio, Marko Arnautovic, Lukasz Fabianski, Tomas Soucek, Jarrod Bowen, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, and Konstantinos Mavropanos one each.

1 – the number of trophies won. That night in Prague and victory over Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League. A victory that the owners hoped to dine on for eternity. West Ham competed in five European campaigns. Two under Slaven Bilic where they were eliminated in the qualifying rounds and three under David Moyes. As well as the Conference win, the Moyes campaigns saw one semi-final and one quarter-final Europa League appearance, losing both to German opposition.

0 – the number of domestic trophies won or finals reached. In the FA Cup, the best efforts were quarter-final exits in 2011, 2016 and 2026. In the League Cup, the Hammers were losing semi-finalists in 2011 and 2014 and were knocked out in the quarter finals four times. Ironically, the best performing cup year was the Avram Grant relegation season.

0 – the number of people disappointed at seeing the back of David Sullivan

Czech Mate: Knight Takes Porn To Capture Control Of West Ham Board

Optimism reigns as Daniel Kretinsky rides to the rescue at the London Stadium. Should we be excited and what is needed to recover from the shortcomings of the last 16 years?

Never in the field of humiliating relegations has despair turned to optimism quite as quickly as it has at West Ham in recent days. First the welcome and overdue resignation of Chairman David Sullivan ahead of the Panorama revelations. And then the news that Daniel Kretinsky is to purchase a chunk of the Gold family shares to make himself the Hammer’s largest stakeholder. Cue an old-fashioned east-end knees up!

Since then, the rumour mill has gone into overdrive with a deluge of plans and proposals (both real and imaginery) that would make West Ham great again. New investment to clear debts, dampening down the fire sale, sorting out the unlovable stadium and developing a fit-for-purpose training facility are just a few of them. Turns out our saviour was hiding in plain sight all along. Just waiting for the asset to get distressed enough to ride to the rescue in his trademark style.

It is a reasonable question to ask what Kretinsky has been doing these past five years. Had he been thwarted in attempts to modernise the club by the intransigent Sullivan/ Gold alliance? Or was it always his intention to take a watching brief from afar and await the collapse? After all, in the most recent accounts he was not even listed as a director. Still, he has been making all the right noises in the media, and we owe him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. Time will tell whether he can follow through on the promises or whether the good intentions end up as another piece of nostalgic memorabilia alongside the Gold and Sullivan 10-point pledge?

As I had written previously, if the plan had been to use funds from player sales to pay off the transfer debt to other clubs and to clear the expensive loans that had been taken out, then West Ham were in deep trouble. In that sense, the message that additional investment would be forthcoming (however that is achieved) is as crucial as it is welcome.

Player sales are still be inevitable to comply with the 85% squad cost ratio rules in light of the estimated £100 million hit on revenues that relegation brings. But the impact needn’t be so great if the club’s cash flow problems are ameliorated. It also strengthens the club’s negotiating position for the transfer of those unwilling to spend at least one season in the lower tier. I would be mightily surprised if any of Fernandes, Summerville, Todibo, Diouf, Wan-Bissaka, Areola, Alvarez, and Fullkrug were still around in August. There may also be others who want to leave, or the club would prefer to have off the payroll.

The objective will be to shift the bigger names for as high a price (and as high a profit) as possible. Play hard ball and the more competition for signatures the better. The bigger the player trading profit, the more that can be reinvested in rebuilding.

The flipside of the expected exodus is the size of the rebuild. The challenge to assemble a squad not only capable of battling their way to promotion but also forming the backbone on the return to the Premier League. West Ham have been notoriously poor at player trading for as long as I can remember – would you believe that the sale of Rio Ferdinand 26 years ago is still seventh in the list of the club’s record transfers out – and requires immediate attention. The rumoured appointment of Steve Nickson (from Newcastle) as Director of Football/ Technical Director sounds like a very positive move. His up-to-date knowledge and expertise would allow him to hit the ground the running in the current transfer window. The turnaround in personnel will be huge and I’m nowhere near as bullish as some on the value our youth players can offer.

The thorny issue (for anyone taking up the DoF role) will be Nuno and his historically over-cosy relationship with friend and super-agent Jorge Mendes. The impression I have of the manager is that he is churlish enough to refuse to play a signing simply because he was not involved in the recruitment process. The DoF/ manager relationship is critical to a successful window and a quick return to the top tier.

One area where Kretinsky’s business empire could come in handy is getting in on the associated party action when securing lucrative sponsorship deals. If it’s good enough for Manchester City!  I’m visualising Royal Mail as our shirt sponsor. First Class Mail for the faster players. Second Class for the rest!  

No doubt, Kretinsky’s immediate priorities will be to sort out the finances and oversee the extensive transfer business over the coming months. Improving the stadium and training facilities are both much longer term projects. The stadium is saddled with so many vested interests and reputations that it is difficult to see a clear way forward for now. That the current arrangement really doesn’t suit anyone should, however, be motivation enough to act.

As for the training ground, could the writing be on the wall for the Rush Green Portakabin village and its satellites? A consolidated location has long been needed to bring the facilities up to contemporary standards and to foster continuity from youth to senior football. It will probably mean a move out of Greater London into the estuarine hinterlands of Essex but so be it. In the Czech tradition, maybe land is available at Bataville in east Tilbury. And the ‘Academy of Football’ really deserves a campus, not just a training ground!

The mention of churlishness earlier, reminds us that David Sullivan is not entirely out of the picture as yet. His days of calling the shots on operational matters may be well and truly over but until he sells up, he remains a significant shareholder. And the support of all large shareholders is required for any major restructuring decisions the club may need. How will he react to the impotency of his behind-the-scenes exile? Will he go gently into the night, tail between his legs? Or linger stubbornly like that bad smell when a mate has been sick in the backseat of your Cortina.

The last thing Kretinsky needs is Sullivan as an obstacle as he plots his next moves. One night in Stratford makes a hard man humble, not much between despair and ecstasy. COYI!

Sundry Sport Exclusive: Former West Ham Chairman Probed By Aliens

In a parallel universe.

The scene is a tacky Essex mansion at the start of a new season. Karen Brady reclines on a four-poster waterbed reading the latest Jackie Collins novel as David Sullivan emerges from the bathroom wearing only a Cossack shower cap.

All seems well with the world. The pain, anguish and humiliation of the previous season had never happened. There had been no relegation, no impending fire sale, no executive resignations, and no TV exposés. Graham Potter had tippy-tappyed his team to surprise European qualification, Niclas Fullkrug was up for the golden boot – and Bobby Ewing was still alive. It had all been a bad dream, just like in Dallas.

Back to life, back to reality!

The sudden resignation of David Sullivan from his executive positions at West Ham last Saturday was met with spontaneous, universal and unbridled joy across the West Hammersphere. Prayers had finally been answered; the despised Chairman was no more. As one astute commentator put it: “they’ll be dancing in the streets of the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park tonight.”

The Panorama documentary was probably not as revealing as many had hoped. Not helped by its short length, early evening slot, parts played by actors, and that we were already familiar with much of the sleaze involved. Reading the accounts of the accusers in The Times were far more harrowing. The damage for Sullivan is more that it may prompt others to come forward with further allegations from his sordid past.

At least there was enough in the broadcast to close the door on any idea Sullivan may have had about a return to the boardroom. We are well rid of him.

But like everything at West Ham, as one door opens another slams rudely in your face. Sullivan may have stepped away from executive involvement and the day to day running of the club but, for now, remains the largest single shareholder. Not surprisingly, speculation is rife as to what might happen next. Will Sullivan choose to sell? Will he be forced out by the football regulator? Will Kretinski want to assume greater control? Is someone else waiting in the wings in the hope of picking up what has become a distressed asset?

It will be a pivotal summer for West Ham’s future as they scramble to sort out finances, cash flows, compliance with squad cost ratios (from vastly reduced revenues) – and to assemble a squad capable of returning to the Premier League at first time of asking. Not the best time for the club’s ownership to be in limbo.

The previously proposed sale of Gold Family holdings giving Sullivan and Kretinski equal stakes at 40% was never finalised in the light of relegation. Had it happened, the changes to individuals with significant control would have required notification to Companies House – and would be available to see.

So, as things stand, we are left with the original fragmented ownership structure of Sullivan (38.8%), Kretinski (27%), Gold Family (25.1%), Tripp Smith (8%) and Others (1.1%).  Sullivan, like anyone else with a 25% plus stake, is able to veto any resolutions which impact the club’s constitution, share capital, mergers and acquisitions etc. At worst, he can continue to mess things up behind the scenes. At best, he needs to support whatever way forward is proposed.

Further, Sullivan’s appointees (currently his two sons) sit on the board and are able to contribute to decisions on operational matters on his behalf.

In theory, the Independent Football Regulator could order Sullivan to sell his holding, but this is likely to be used as a last resort. As odious an individual as he is, does he really stand out from the crowd when it comes to fit and proper ownership in modern football?

Far better that the ownership is resolved internally. Indeed, a clean sweep purging all Golds and Sullivans from the club would be the ideal scenario. It is difficult to believe that either of Sullivan’s sons would want to spend too much time in the media spotlight given a likely ongoing investigation, and with a mother who is best known as director of ‘Horny Housewives on the Job.’ And the Gold family are only in there by default.

Kretinski has been making all the right noises so far, but it is not known what appetite he has for greater investment. It is understood the put-and-call option negotiated in 2021 is still on the table, but the originally agreed price may no longer be attractive to him.

A third party – Amanda Staveley, Daniel Levy, predatory US venture capital, a Tony Cottee consortium – buying up all the Gold & Sullivan shares would give them majority control although Kretinski would need to approve any such a move.

While all this is going on, a question mark remains over who is at the wheel to oversee the summer clear out and rebuild. Someone needs to drag West Ham’s operational structure, finances, recruitment and coaching into the 21st century. And a cool head is needed to turn to the so-called ‘Fire Sale’ into an effective rebuilding fund – refusing to blink when the big clubs come knocking. And to recruit not only for the Championship but with an eye to the future beyond?

It’s going to be a cold, lonely summer. COYI!

Sifting Through The Wreckage Of West Ham’s Relegation: What Happens Next?

The pride, vanity, stupidity and arrogance of David Sullivan’s leadership was an accident waiting to happen. Now we must rely on the same fools to sort it out again.

The long and painful slow motion car crash which heralded West Ham’s inevitable relegation finally reached its climax at the weekend. A late show of industry but no last minute dramatic escape. Now they are over the edge how far will they fall? A safe landing? Or crashing and burning into the abyss below?

Media coverage of West Ham’s plight has seen assorted journos belatedly understand what fans have known for years. That the fault of the Hammer’s demise lies fairly and squarely in the boardroom. A club run for the self-aggrandisement and vanity of incompetent owners who had always considered themselves as benevolent saviours. Forget the broken promises and the ten-point pledges that were not worth the paper they were written. It was only ever about their own egos – amateur interference and arrogant meddling in a sport that ought to be run by professionals.

Perhaps you could get away with running a club as a hobby in the past when promoted clubs regularly struggled to make the step up to the Premier League. But that has all changed. The game has changed. Data analytics, extensive scouting netwroks, player trading strategies, organisation, planning and a reliance on pace and athleticism on the pitch have been universally embraced – except at West Ham who have plodded along from one short-sighted season to the next.

Post relegation media reports have also homed in on the Hammer’s decline since the 2023 European Conference success, but the rot had set in well before then. Instead, the high-water mark was the surprise sixth-place finish in 2020/21, and it was the failure to refresh and build on that success which started the fire. The departure of Declan Rice and wasting the proceeds on a string of erratic recruits was the accelerant.

West Ham are now on their fourth manager in a little over three years. I was expecting it to be five, but it seems the Czech Sphinx has pulled rank to provide Nuno with a stay of execution. Nuno’s haul of 36 points from 33 games is hardly impressive while strange selections and tactics, multiple points lost from winning positions, and puzzling game management strategies have frequently left us scratching our heads. Still, compared to the other names being bandied about (Parker, Bilic, Dyche) sticking with the devil you know might not be such a bad idea. Only time will tell.

It has not been sacking managers that is the root of the club’s problem but making poor hiring decisions in the first place. The sole criteria for appointment being out of work and available. In the absence of any footballing expertise or competent direction from the boardroom this approach has proven a recipe for chaos. A squad assembled by a succession of drive-by managers, a lame-duck technical director and a meddling know-it-all Chairman. Who could have thought such lack of cohesion and continuity would end in disaster?

Now we are being led to believe the same fools who got us into this mess are the ones capable of getting us out of it again. If the player exodus is anywhere near as extensive as predicted, how on earth does a club with such an abysmal transfer record put together a squad capable of promotion over the long and arduous season ahead.

Understandably, a lot of focus in the wake of relegation has turned to the fragile state of West Ham’s finances. But we should remember that there are two separate views of finance in football. The club’s ability to comply with prevailing league rules such as PSR and SCR is one. The club’s debt and cash flow position is the other. A cynic might say that club owners conveniently conflate the two as a means of hoodwinking fans.

It will come as no surprise that the West Ham board have made a right pig’s ear of both. When it comes to cash flow, the club has extensive transfer debt, expensive financial debt and has factored future transfers receivable at a discount to pay yesterday’s bills. Attempting to address these through revenues and transfers looks like a distressing prospect. The hope is that the owners will break the habit of a lifetime and inject further capital to stabilise the debt burden.

West Ham’s financial year closes on 31 May and plans must now be put in place to comply with the Championship’s 85% Squad Cost Ratio rules based on much reduced revenues for the coming year. My rough back of a beer mat calculations predicts a loss of around £60 million in the current year on revenues of £225 million plus a raft of transfers out. This should be well within the retiring PSR limits thanks largely to the continuing impact of the Rice sale in 2023.

For 2026/27 revenues will probably fall to around £125 million. Squad costs (salaries and player amortisation) are currently circa £245 million but may reduce by £50 or £60 millions depending on how widespread relegation clauses are applied in existing contracts. But this still exceeds SCR limits and player sales are going to be necessary. This is where things become interesting as individual sales have varying impacts in three separate areas: a saving in wages, a reduction in amortisation, and profit or loss on player trading depending on whether a player is sold above or below book value. Profits from player trading are added to revenues for the purposes of SCR. Claims that West Ham must make £150 million in player sales might be valid as a cash flow mitigation but for SCR no two transfers are alike.

As the following table illustrates, this produces many possible permutations. For example, selling Bowen for £50 million would generate a significant wage saving, have little or no amortisation impact but the whole fee can be booked as player trading profit. In contrast, selling Fernandes for £50 million provides a lower wage savings, a significant amortisation reduction, but only £20 million of player sale profit.

At the other end of the scale, it might prove impossible to offload players such as Kilman and Fullkrug without taking an unwanted hit on player sales. I don’t see anyway it makes sense to cancel player contracts early.

The Championship moving from PSR to SCR does seem to offer a glimmer of hope. But that still requires the owners to do the decent thing and inject much needed capital into the club. The club also need to hold their nerve and not sell players on the cheap just to get funds through the door. We will watch this space. COYI!

Two Games to Go: West Ham’s Survival Equation

With only two matches remaining, West Ham’s Premier League survival bid has reached its simplest and most uncomfortable form. There are no longer scenarios to project deep into the future, no room for recalibration, and no benefit in revisiting earlier turning points. What matters now is what can still be done, and whether this squad is capable of doing it.

At this stage of the season, survival ceases to be about long‑term trends and becomes a test of short‑term execution. Form over months counts for little. Tactics, mentality, and decision‑making under pressure count for everything. West Ham’s position reflects a season defined by inconsistency, fragility, and missed opportunities, but it does not yet render survival impossible.

The case for West Ham staying up rests on moments rather than momentum. We are not a team carrying a sustained run of results into the final fortnight, but neither are we a team that is completely detached from the fight. On the whole the performances in 2026 have been good enough for a reasonable league position but we were perhaps too far behind to realistically stay up with any comfort or perhaps stay up at all. At times performances have fluctuated (Brentford), but certainly in the last four months we have not collapsed entirely. That distinction matters. Teams that go down early often look beaten well before mathematics confirm it. West Ham, for all our faults, are still competing to the end.

Whether that proves enough depends partly on what we do, but also what Tottenham do. With two games to go, the deficit is two points. Added to that we have an inferior goal difference. If Tottenham win both of their games we are down, if they win one and draw one we are down. Both scenarios mean that we are relegated whatever we do. If Tottenham win one and lose one we need to win both of our games to survive. If they draw both of them we still need to win twice to remain a Premier League side. Even if they draw one and lose the other we still need a win and a draw. And if they lose twice we still need to win one of our remaining two games. Basically we have to collect three more points than them to stay up. We cannot shape events entirely on our own terms.

It’s FA Cup Final weekend. We’ve got two of them! Of the two contenders for the third relegation spot we play first at the strange time of 5.30 on Sunday evening. And despite Newcastle’s indifferent season this is not the easiest of games. If, and it’s a big if, we can somehow pull off a win in the North-East then we could perhaps have a psychological edge. We would climb out of the bottom three at least until Tottenham go to West London to face a Chelsea team who have been poor for the latter part of the season. Chelsea, who at one time were destined to challenge for a Champions League place, now sit ninth in the table and have collected just one point in their last seven games, the worst record in the whole division, and they have only scored two goals in those games. If only they had faced Chelsea earlier in the season when they were playing well! We can only hope that a London Derby with no love lost between them can inspire the West Londoners.

So it hardly looks promising, does it? The only scenario where we go into the final game with it in our own hands is a West Ham win in the North-East and a Tottenham defeat in West London. We would both then face home fixtures; we entertain Leeds while Tottenham face Everton. I’d rather have our fixture than theirs, but both games would be tense and nervy if relegation is still undecided by then.

Home fixtures take on a different character at this point. Crowd involvement can distort expectation, and force matches into uncomfortable territories. The London Stadium has seen this dynamic work both for and against West Ham in recent seasons. But ask me now and I’d take this position without hesitation. In fact, I’d take going into the last game with something still to play for even if we weren’t in the driving seat. To have taken it this far seemed unlikely if we think back to January when we were seven points adrift.

Ultimately, West Ham’s chances of staying up are very narrow. Defeat in Newcastle would leave Tottenham needing just a point from their final two games. That must be avoided at all costs if we are to have any hope. But for the moment another Great Escape is still a possibility, however remote, and that’s all we can cling to. If we fail, the postmortem can begin.

One Nil To The VARsenal: Two Tier Refereeing May Finally Have Relegated West Ham

A spirited Hammer’s performance is to no avail as a zombie strike and the dark arts of Arsenal and VAR strip them of a point in the dying minutes of Sunday’s London Stadium clash

Football was once such a simple game. It was simplicity that defined its beauty and popularity. Sure, the laws of the game have always been a matter of subjective interpretation, but refereeing gaffes were mostly forgotten by the time it took to reach the platform at Upton Park station. Then came the big money, the detailed media scrutiny, the game’s tactical and physical overload, the PGMOL and its cadre of celebrity refs. What a mighty mess it has become.

As a supporter holding varying opinions are part of the game’s appeal. If you think Tomas Soucek is the beating heart of West Ham and I think he is a liability most of the time, it really makes no odds. But when it comes to officiating erratic variation is unacceptable. We need consistency and fairness without fear nor favour. Infringements to treated equally no matter where on the pitch they occur. We shouldn’t need to worry about elapsed time when one player is holding another’s shirt, all shirt pulling should be penalised. If it was, it would soon stop. As would grappling at corners. As would players cheating by diving in the area. Or players getting away with constantly complaining to the referee provided they wave no imaginary cards.

Threats to clamp down on cheating have a long history but other than sending off Manuel Lanzini, nothing has ever come of it. Any coincidence that it is the ‘elite’ clubs who are most enamoured with the game’s dark arts? Do they have a Dark Arts coach?

If a spy had been sent along the Arsenal training ground, I’m certain they would have returned with tales of Arteta holding diving and squealing drills. Everyone knows they do it, yet a supposedly experienced referee in Chris Kavanagh bought the con all afternoon – like a gullible toddler falling for a three-card trick. But such naivety collapsed into insignificance compared to the added time VAR imbroglio that would sour the outcome.

I predicted in last week’s article that Nuno would resort to three centre backs for this game and that is exactly what happened. Jean-Clair Todibo coming in and Pablo dropping to the bench. Aaron Wan-Bissaka was also favoured over Kyle Walker-Peters.

The Hammers started cautiously and showed little enterprise in the opening exchanges. But following a flurry of early scares and scrambles, they settled down to contain Arsenal relatively comfortably. For a team leading the table the Gunners had little invention until Odegaard was introduced. Set pieces being the greatest danger to the West Ham goal. Arteta’s weird decision to react to White’s injury by moving Rice to full back offered the Hammer’s encouragement, and the half ended with a long range Taty header well saved by Raya.

For once, Nuno’s men were quick to shake off their half-time slumbers and managed to stifle what attacking threat the visitors could muster – mainly Saka shooting over the bar. The game’s first major turning point came in the 78th minute when Mateus Fernandes wriggled clear in the six-yard box and rather than aim for the wide-open spaces at the goal’s far corner shot tamely against the keeper’s legs. An xG of 110% if I’ve ever seen one!  

Five minutes later and Arsenal were one up. There is very little to admire when watching Arteta’s Arsenal – unless ruthless, underhand efficiency is your entertainment of choice. And high on the list of unlikeables is Leandro Trossard, a player who would be at home as an extra on the Walking Dead – there must be some zombie genes in there somewhere. True to form though, having spent the entire afternoon griping and bellyaching to all and sundry he pops up with the decisive goal.

But the games true drama was yet to come. Nuno’s last throw of the dice was the belated arrival of supersub Callum Wilson. Immediately, he was presented with a good shooting opportunity, blocked on the line. Then moments later he fired home what should have been a vital equaliser. The stadium erupted. A fiesta of joyous screaming, yelling, shouting, jumping and dancing. It may not have been enough to save the season, but it was just reward for the spirit and attitude demonstrated by the players.

But the cancer of VAR had other ideas. Let’s face it, once the check started we all knew the outcome would be inevitble. Clear and obvious be blowed. This was a decision of expedience. What conclusion would generate the minimum fallout. Darren England took and age, umming and ahhing before evading all responsibility with a hospital pass back to the referee. Kavanagh stood in a trance watching the same clip 17 times before reaching his self-interest conclusion. After review, I have decided which side my bread is buttered and find for the prosecution.

All season, there have been complaints about the grappling and wrestling at corners pioneered by Arsenal. It has been the source of many goals for them, and they may well hold a patent on it. As the corner came in there were bodies flying and colliding everywhere. Rice was manhandling Mavropanos, Trossard had his arms around Pablo, yet Pablo’s coming together with Raya was the only incident deemed worthy of review. Why no penalty check?

We know from experience that if you watch the same clip over and over again, from different angles, and in slow motion, it will start to look dodgy. The reason so many pundits were convinced of Paqueta’s guilt in the Betway betting fiasco.

Again, the inconsistency of VAR was to the fore. A review that took so long to complete could not be classed as clear and obvious. And what of proximate cause? Had Trossard not been grappling Pablo, would his arm have gone anywhere near the advancing keeper?

Pablo must have dreamed of finally making such a decisive impact on a game – but not like this. As an aside, I’ve only recently discovered Pablo is the son of Brazilian footballer, Pena, a former teammate of Nuno at Porto. His signing, a modern-day equivalent of Moyes buying Jordan Hugill from his cash strapped Preston North End mates.

Who cannot see that the micro analysis of VAR has been terrible for fans and the spontaneity of the game? It’s concerning itself with incidents that were never an issue before its introduction. The only beneficiaries are the broadcasters given privileged access to the conversations that take place. Granting them talking points to liven up the underwhelming product that Premier League football often is. One further action interlude alongside scanning for celebrities in the crowd and endless action replays while the on-field action continues.

It quite amazing that the clubs were given the option to abandon VAR in the summer but decided (apart from Wolves) to vote against it.

The Hammer’s plight looks beyond desperate now – although that could change if Leeds do the decent thing and beat Tottenham tonight. As for the title, I would love it, love it, if Arsenal bottled it in the last two games – and then get thrashed in the Champions League final. COYI!

The trapdoor is open: West Ham’s Three Game Fight To Stay Up

One point behind Spurs, two realistically when you look at the goal difference, a brutal run-in, and no margin for error

Three matches rarely feel like a season, but that is exactly what West Ham are facing as the 2025–26 Premier League campaign enters its closing stretch. With two clubs already down and one final trapdoor still open, the Hammers’ run-in is less about style points and more about survival; we must turn the London Stadium into a pressure cooker, find points in all three games probably, and hope the margins fall our way.

The Premier League table explains the anxiety. After 35 games, West Ham sit 18th on 36 points with a goal difference of -19, one point behind Tottenham Hotspur in 17th on 37 points (Spurs’ goal difference is -9). Burnley (20 points) and Wolves (18 points) have already been relegated, leaving one remaining relegation place that now looks like a straight shootout between the Hammers and Spurs. Mathematically Forest and Palace are still involved but let’s be realistic; they are safe.

In practical terms, West Ham’s fate is no longer in our own hands. Being a point adrift means simply “matching” Tottenham’s results won’t be enough; West Ham need to outscore Spurs by at least a point over the final three fixtures. And if the clubs finish level on points, goal difference becomes pivotal. With Spurs ten goals better off, we cannot assume being level on points will save us unless we can dramatically swing the numbers in three games, a very unlikely and probably virtually impossible task at this stage.

That’s why the fixture list matters as much as the points. West Ham’s final three are brutally defined; Arsenal at home, Newcastle away, and Leeds at home. Tottenham’s closing schedule is Leeds at home, Chelsea away, and Everton at home. Both of us have two home games but on paper, (was it Brian Clough who once said games are played on grass not paper?) Spurs have the gentler run-in, while West Ham must find a way to take something from the league leaders and a recently resurgent Newcastle before a finale that could become a do-or-die game. I hope we still have a chance to escape when the final game comes around but it might be all over by then.

First comes Arsenal, top of the league and still with their own title business to finish. That cuts both ways for West Ham. Arsenal’s quality raises the difficulty level, but the stakes can also tighten a contender’s legs, especially in a hostile away environment. For the Hammers, the aim does not have to be perfect football; it has to be a plan that keeps the game alive, stay compact, manage the first 20 minutes, and give the fans a reason to believe that a point (or more) is possible. A defeat coupled with a Tottenham win over Leeds could almost be curtains for us. The deficit would then be four points, which with the goal difference taken into account would require winning the last two games and hoping Tottenham don’t manage more than one point from their last two.

If we still have a chance of survival when we reach the final game then that closing match at home to Leeds with a home crowd, familiar surroundings, and an opponent with less to play for could still be interesting. But final-day games are notorious for ignoring logic. If survival comes down to 90 minutes, West Ham will want to arrive with as much control over the narrative as possible, and I can’t see that happening under any circumstances. It would be a miracle to arrive here with it in our own hands. At best we would be relying on David Moyes’ Everton to lend a hand.

The reality is that unless we can pick up an improbable four points against Arsenal and Newcastle, which is what I expect Tottenham to get against Leeds and Chelsea then the final game of the season may well be our final game in the Premier League for at least a season and sadly, potentially longer.

Predictive models underline the scale of the task. Opta’s supercomputer has placed West Ham as the likeliest, projecting relegation in roughly three-quarters of its simulations. Deep Block, the Under the Hammers supercomputer, which has been bullish for the last nine games, is more pessimistic now and projects the drop at 93% likely at this stage of the season.

So what does survival likely require? Seven unlikely points might do it. That may not be enough though. Even three wins might not be enough but it probably would be and it would certainly make life interesting! Our chances are very slim but not mathematically hopeless. Not yet anyway. The survival path still exists, the margins are clear, and the incentive could not be sharper. The question is whether we can produce three defining performances before the season runs out of road. If I’m honest I don’t really think we are good enough. You reap what you sow. And sadly the seeds we’ve sown in recent times have produced the harvest that we deserve.